Highlights
- •Shahroud county is one of the high-risk areas for MS and MS incidence in it is similar to global changes.
- •The average age at the time of diagnosis of the patients remained relatively stable over the time.
- •The MS incidence has increased by 34% from 2005 to 2020 in shahroud county.
- •It is forecasted that the MS incidence will increase in the coming years in shahroud county.
Abstract
Background
In recent years dramatic changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence have been reported
in different provinces in Iran. This study was conducted to assess MS incidence temporal
trends from March 21, 2005, to March 20, 2020, and provide a forecast until the end
of 2025 in Shahroud county.
Methods
This longitudinal study was carried out based on the data obtained from the MS registration
system in Shahroud county. First, the annual incidence rates were calculated based
on the year of diagnosis and smoothed using the Empirical Bayesian Method. Then temporal
trends and annual percent change (APC) of MS incidence were analyzed using Joinpoint
(JP) regression. Finally, the univariate time series model analysis was used to estimate
the MS incidence trend until the end of 2025.
Results
A total of 234 newly diagnosed cases (60 [25.64%] males and 174 [74.36.4%] females)
were examined in this study. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was
31.40 ± 3.78. It was 32.01 ± 6.35 and 30.66 ± 4.27 years for males and females, respectively
(P<0.22). The mean annual MS incidence was 5.99 ± 1.46, 3.03 ± 0.21, and 8.98 ± 2.79
per 100,000 in overall, males and females respectively. The MS incidence increased
significantly from 5.67 (95% CI: 3.63–7.99) in 2005 to 7.58 (95% CI: 5.17–10.28) in
2020 with an APC of 4.5 (2.8 – 6.1). The MS incidence had a non-linear time trend
in the study period and the best time trend fitted to the annual MS incidence trend
was the non-linear quadratic curve. Based on this model, the annual MS incidence is
expected to increase until the end of 2025.
Conclusion
Shahroud county is one of the high-risk areas for MS and the increasing trend of MS
incidence in it is similar to regional and global changes. This study, also, showed
that MS incidence in Shahroud county will be increasing in the coming years.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: December 15, 2022
Accepted:
December 14,
2022
Received in revised form:
November 5,
2022
Received:
September 20,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
