Clinical trial| Volume 38, 101520, February 2020

Predictors of progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis in a large Turkish cohort

Published:November 12, 2019DOI:


      • New data on the predictors of progression for PPMS are needed for prognostification.
      • We verified the effect of onset age on disease progression rate.
      • Onset with spinal motor symptoms was identified as a negative prognostic factor.
      • Onset with supratentorial signs was associated with a longer time to EDSS6.
      • Presence of gadolinium enhancing lesions was not associated with outcome.



      Studies on the predictors of progression for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) are limited and there is no information in the literature for populations outside Europe and North America. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors of progression in a large Turkish PPMS cohort.


      We analyzed a cohort of 157 PPMS patients to investigate the effect of age of onset, gender, onset symptoms, presence or absence of relapses, and baseline gadolinium-enhancing lesions on the rate of progression to EDSS6 by using Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox regression.


      Older age of onset and presence of spinal motor symptoms at onset were associated with a shorter time to EDSS6 and presence of supratentorial signs at onset was associated with a longer time to EDSS6 according to Kaplan-Meier analysis. These factors remained significant after multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Clinical relapses were present in 22.3% and gadolinium-enhancing lesions on baseline MRI were present in 28% of patients, but these factors were not predictive of time to EDSS6.


      We identified age of onset and symptom at onset as predictors of progression in Turkish PPMS patients. Presence of clinical relapses or baseline gadolinium-enhancing lesions did not affect PPMS progression rate.


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